Charting Rory McIlroy’s chances of victory on a wild Masters Sunday

What a wild ride this Masters Sunday was.

It can be cliche to liken a sporting event to a rollercoaster — but during the final round of this 89th Masters, it felt like that at times. With birdies and bogeys, water balls and epic comebacks, Sunday at Augusta National was an all-timer.

Rory McIlroy eventually prevailed in a playoff over Justin Rose, but at points during the final round, it did not look as if that would be the case. Luckily for you, golf fans, we can chart exactly how likely McIlroy was to win the green jacket throughout the day, thanks to our friends at Data Golf.

Check out below for a rundown on the wildest major Sunday in recent memory.

1:50 p.m. (ET) — Rose tees off

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 1st
Score: -12
Chances of winning: 66.6%

Justin Rose
Standing: T6
Score: -5
Chances of winning: .3%

Although Justin Rose was the 18- and 36-hole leader, a Saturday 75 dropped him outside of contention. As he teed off to begin his final round, Rose was seven shots behind McIlroy’s lead and his chances of winning were below 1 percent. Meanwhile, McIlroy is the heavy favorite to win at 66.6 percent as he prepares for his final round.

2:30 p.m. — McIlroy tees off

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 1st
Score: -12
Chances of winning: 66.6%

Justin Rose
Standing: T5
Score: -6
Chances of winning: .6%

With a birdie at the 1st to get to six under, Rose ever so slightly narrows the gap to six as McIlroy heads to the tee. However, the circle on the opener does little to bolster his chances as his probability of claiming victory is still below 1 percent.

2:45 p.m. — McIlroy doubles the 1st

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 1st
Score: -10
Chances of winning: 45.1%

Justin Rose
Standing: T3
Score: -7
Chances of winning: 2.8%

McIlroy’s round gets off to the worst possible start as he three-putts the 1st for double, putting a huge dent in his chances of victory. Meanwhile, Rose birdies the 3rd to get into a tie for third three shots back. Still though, his probability to win is still minuscule at just under 3 percent.

3:15 p.m. — McIlroy pars No. 2, loses the lead

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 2nd
Score: -10
Chances of winning: 36.3%

Justin Rose
Standing: T5
Score: -5
Chances of winning: .5%

McIlroy’s drive on the 2nd found the fairway bunker and he was not able to take advantage of the scoring hole as he tapped in for a disappointing par. Up ahead, Rose squandered his two-under start as he bogeyed Nos. 4 and 5 to fall back to even par for the day. At this point, Bryson DeChambeau has the best odds to win the tournament with a one-shot lead at 11 under.

3:30 p.m. — McIlroy birdies Nos. 3 and 4

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 1st
Score: -12
Chances of winning: 78%

Justin Rose
Standing: T5
Score: -6
Chances of winning: .7%

McIlroy bounces back from his lackluster start with birdies on Nos. 3 and 4 to reclaim the outright lead. Rose gets one back at the 7th, but he’s still not considered a serious threat to win the tournament.

4:36 p.m. — Rose begins his charge

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 1st
Score: -12
Chances of winning: 71.2%

Justin Rose
Standing: T2
Score: -9
Chances of winning: 6.2%

McIlroy once again fails to birdie the par-5 8th while Rose is in the middle of Amen Corner. After birdieing the 11th, he rolls in another at the 12th to cut his deficit to just three. His chances of winning the green jacket have improved, but only marginally.

5:12 p.m. — McIlroy birdies the 10th

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 1st
Score: -14
Chances of winning: 95.3%

Justin Rose
Standing: 2nd
Score: -10
Chances of winning: 2.8%

After McIlroy rolled in a birdie putt at the 10th, it looked as though he had finally vanquished the Augusta National demons that had haunted him since his collapse in 2011. Around the same time, Rose birdies the 13th (narrowly missing his eagle putt) to take second place alone.

5:42 p.m. — McIlroy doubles 13, Rose birdies 16

Rory McIlroy
Standing: T1
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 59.8%

Justin Rose
Standing: T1
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 33.9%

McIlroy bogeyed the 11th to drop a shot, but it coincided with a bogey from Rose at the 14th. And once McIlroy successfully navigated the 12th, it seemed as though he was on his way to a coronation. However, an inexplicable wedge into Rae’s Creek leading to double bogey dropped him another two shots down the board. As this was happening, Rose was making yet another charge. After birdieing the 15th, he stuffs his tee shot on the par-3 16th to set up a birdie to tie the lead. All of the sudden, McIlroy’s chances of winning the green jacket are plummeting.

5:54 p.m. — McIlroy bogeys No. 14

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 2nd
Score: -10
Chances of winning: 29.9%

Justin Rose
Standing: 1
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 51.8%

Things go from bad to worse for McIlroy as he fails to get up-and-down on the 14th to drop his third shot in two holes. For the first time since early in the front nine, he is not the favorite to win.

6:12 p.m. — McIlroy birdies 15, Rose bogeys 17

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 1
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 64.9%

Justin Rose
Standing: 2nd
Score: -10
Chances of winning: 17.1%

Just as it looked as though the tournament was slipping away, McIlroy hits the shot of the tournament, hooking a 7-iron around the trees to set up a short eagle look at the 15th. He misses on the low side, but at the same time, Rose cannot get up-and-down on 17 to fall one shot back of the lead.

6:15 p.m. — Rose birdies No. 18 to post clubhouse lead

Rory McIlroy
Standing: T1
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 42.2%

Justin Rose
Standing: T1
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 57.7%

McIlroy misses a great chance at birdie on the 16th and then hits a drive that is blocked out by the trees on the right side of the 17th fairway. Up ahead at the 18th green, Rose pours in a birdie putt to post the clubhouse lead at 11 under.

6:33 p.m. — McIlroy birdies No. 17

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 1st
Score: -12
Chances of winning: 86.7%

Justin Rose
Standing: 2nd
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 13.3%

McIlroy hits a towering wedge that just carries the greenside bunker setting up a short birdie look at the 17th. Moments later, he calmly rolls in the putt to take a one-shot lead to the 72nd hole.

6:55 p.m. — McIlroy bogeys No. 18 to force playoff

Rory McIlroy
Standing: T1
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 50%

Justin Rose
Standing: T1
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 50%

McIlroy finds the fairway with his drive, but another loose wedge squirts out right and finds the greenside bunker. He hits his bunker shot to about 6 feet, but when the putt just slides by on the left side, it ensures the first playoff at Augusta National since 2017. The two head back to the 18th tee to begin the sudden-death playoff. (Note: Data Golf’s model does not provide winning probabilities for the playoff. For simplicity’s sake, we have placed the odds at 50/50.)

7:17 p.m. — McIlroy birdies No. 18, completes career Gran Slam

Rory McIlroy
Standing: 1st
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 100%

Justin Rose
Standing: 2nd
Score: -11
Chances of winning: 0%

At long last, McIlroy is a Masters champion. After hitting a picture-perfect drive off the 18th tee, he hits a three-quarter gap wedge off the slope in the middle of the green as his ball settles just 3 feet above the cup. After he holes out for birdie, he crouches on his knees and lets out a primal scream. With the win, he becomes just the sixth golfer to ever complete the career Grand Slam, and first to accomplish the feat since Tiger Woods in 2001.